Is Bahrain on the Brink of Civil War?

Bahrain's Shiites turn to ballots after crackdowns  (Yahoo News, by Brian Murphy, 10/24/2010)

Bahrain is a tiny island nation on the Saudi Arabian side of the Persian Gulf.  It has long been an American ally due to it's strong stance against Iran's nuclear ambitions.  However, several factors, including allegations of fraud in last weeks elections and an upcoming trial of 23 political dissidents, are adding fuel to the already heated flames of discord between the country's Shiite and Sunni populations.

Currently, though they are the minority of the population, the Sunni's hold a majority of the power in Bahrain.  They are also far richer than their Shiite counterparts.  Through the recent elections, the Shiites were hoping to demonstrate their desire for equal representation in the government.  But, even before the day of actual voting, plans were made to station tables outside of polling places so that voters could be asked who they had supported as they left.  "The lists will be used for any possible challenges to the official results."

On election day, only 67% of the total population turned out to vote.  This may be because Shiites are boycotting this years election, due to still un-investigated claims of fraud from the 2006 election.   These practices seem to be a regular occurrence.  "Sheik Ali Salman, head of the Al Wefaq party, claimed that at least 890 voters were turned away from polling stations in mostly Shiite areas because their names were not on electoral lists. Even small numbers of votes are crucial in a country with fewer than 319,000 eligible voters."

Furthermore, Shiite leaders are alleging Sunni politicians employed gerrymandering to "undercut Shiite strength."  To further boost their own numbers, Sunni's made their neighbors in Saudi Arabia and other neighboring Gulf nations citizens, just so they could vote for the establishment party.  "At a polling station near the causeway connecting Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, many voters arrived driving cars with Saudi plates and headed back over the border after casting their ballots." Imagine a line of cars streaming back to Canada and Mexico on November 2nd and, and we may begin to understand what Bahrain's Sunni's are experiencing.

If you ask the Shiite's, however, there were no inconsistencies in the election process that were severe enough to change the results.  Bahrain's Justice Minister has called the elections "fair."

Add to this political tension the fact that 23 Shiite activists "accused of plotting a coup" will be starting their trials this coming week, and you may see why folks like myself are wondering if Bahrain's government is at risk of being challenged.  I will watch for information on this politically intriguing nation, including the dissident's trial, and keep this post updated.