Would Have, Could Have, Should Have

When I was in Junior High and High School during the early to mid 1990's, I remember Somalia being in the news all of the time.  I recall celebrities holding "Save Somalia" concerts, and commercials urging our politicians to take action.  I vaguely remember seeing the movie "Black Hawk Down" about an unsuccessful US mission to Mogadishu in 1993.   I wasn't very in tune to world events at the time, and now wish I would have listened, and learned more back then.

I didn't hear anything else about Somalia for a REALLY long time.  In fact, the next time I remember hearing anything about the African nation is about a year ago.  In a short documentary video I watched online (that I can no longer locate, unfortunately) I saw several black and white photos  showing terrorists training camps in Somalia, as well as heard interviews with intelligence personal who though American born Somali's were heading to these locations.  I remember commenting to my girl friend who was sitting next to me at the time, "Once we are done in Afghanistan and Iraq, I bet Somalia is next."

Since then, I have been watching for any headlines related to the divided nation.  And today I saw one that gave me a profound feeling of deja vu:  Somalia resembling Afghanistan under Taliban. 

The story is eerily redundant.  Ex-British colony never establishes strong centralized government; Extremist Islamic groups fill in the gap, providing law and order, but at a high price.

"In the latest adoption of tactics long used by the Afghan militants, al-Shabab is ordering households in southern Somalia to contribute a boy to the militants' ranks. Childless families have to pay al-Shabab $50 a month. That's Somalia's per capita income." (Source: Somalia resembling Afghanistan under Taliban)

We have already seen what al-Shabab is capable of in Uganda during the World Cup.  The dual-attack calling card of al-Qaida was all to obvious to me. 

All of which makes me wish I, along with everyone else, would have paid a little more attention to Somalia back in the 1990's.  Maybe if we would have won the "hearts and minds" of these impoverished folks, extreme Islamic groups wouldn't have had the opportunity to fill in the gap.

But I don't really like ending posts with would have, could have, should haves.  So, instead, I am going to use what I have learned from Somalia to postulate that Sudan's Darfur region looks like it would make a great new stomping grounds for these terrorist murders.  Maybe we really should be paying attention to the celebrities saying save Darfur. . . .

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9/2:  Pirate Mercenaries

It seems like the plot in a video game.  You get to play as the Somali pirates, and decide if you want to fight for the good guys (the Somali government) or the bad guys (the Shabab and Hizbul Islam - Islamic militant groups).  What determines who gets your guns on any particular day?  Money, of course.

The following quote demonstrates how pirates could end up fighting pirates:
"While local government officials in Hobyo have deputized pirate gangs to ring off coastal villages and block out the Shabab, down the beach in Xarardheere, another pirate lair, elders said that other pirates recently agreed to split their ransoms with the Shabab and Hizbul Islam, another Islamist insurgent group."  (Source:  NYT:  Somalia seeks pirate allies against al Qaeda-linked groups)

These pirates aren't fighting with shiny cutlasses and one-shot blunderbusses anymore, either.  Some pirate gangs are re-investing their loot to create standing infantries, complete with machine guns and trucks with anti-aircraft weapons.

Will the pirates end up tipping the balance in Somalia so that one side takes the lead in a war that has been boiling since 1991?  We shall have too see.

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9/2:  Ugandan Troops Funded by US Fighting in Somalia

Following bloodshed on their own soil, the Ugandan government has volunteered to send 10,000 more troops to Somalia, but only if the US foots the bill.   According to the Ugandans, the US has already volunteered to fund these peacekeeping troops.  The U.S. Embassy spokeswoman in Uganda, Joann Lockard, however, disagrees.  Apparently the US has already funded 1,000 troops, and has not committed to anymore.  Lockard urges other nations to step up and help.  (As if that ever happens).  Source:  Uganda asks US help to send 10k troops to Somalia
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9/9
Somali refugees tell of hellish scene in Mogadishu

The accounts of the poor souls at the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya are like nothing I have ever read. I think that it is important we realize what is happening in Somalia.  Al-Shabab has an entire nation in the grips of terror.  Families are fleeing the violence by the thousands.  Those that can't afford to leave hide in their homes without for days without food or water.  Babies starve, children go without medicine, women are stoned to death for the mere suspicion of being seen by a man.

"The U.N. estimates that more than 230 people have died in clashes since Aug. 23, when al-Shabab started an offensive with a suicide attack on a hotel in the capital that killed 32 people."  There is no end to the violence in sight.  In fact, al-Shabab is growing stronger.  They are using mortars now instead of just machine guns.
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9/16
Somalia battles measure success in meters

Watch the video from the above link.  I will repeat that because I know 90% of you haven't clicked the link yet.  Please, watch the video from the above link.

When I saw the soldiers pouring out of the airplane and running for cover, I was reminded of Vietnam movies, where soldiers jump out of helicopters and immediately seek shelter in the jungle.  Only in Mogadishu, there are no trees.  There are only the dilapidated, concrete frames of a city that was once a paradise.

There were a couple points mentioned in the article, and not the video, that bear repeating.  Apparently during the World Cup soccer tournament which took place this summer, any fans caught watching the games were executed.   According to Al-Shabab, watching sports is un-Islamic.

I also found this tidbit interesting:

"Intelligence-gathering drones can now be heard above Mogadishu during the day and night. Most presume they are American. However, the Obama administration strongly denies any involvement in advising local forces."

I don't understand why our government wouldn't admit it's involvement in helping the Somali government, and African Union soldiers on the ground, with this desperate situation.  Personally, I hope we are helping gather intelligence.  I have often said that ungovernable regions of Africa pose a bigger threat at breeding terrorism than the Middle East.

Finally, it is important to remember the innocent human blood being shed:

"The U.N. announced that in the two weeks spanning the end of August and start of September, more than 250 civilians had been killed in the crossfire in Mogadishu."

Reading that makes me say it again; would have, could have, should have.
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9/21
Somalia's prime minister resigns amid tensions

In his resignation speech, Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke stated his action would "save the nation."  I wish this was the case.  The government of Somalia holds only a few blocks of territory.  I fear the isolated resignation of Mr. Sharmarke will go mostly unnoticed by the Islamic militants and pirates controlling the rest of the country.
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9/23
21 killed in fighting in Somalia's capital city

"Somalia's most dangerous militant group, al-Shabab, has launched a series of attacks over the last month after declaring a "new" war against the Somali government. There are 7,100 African Union peacekeepers stationed in Mogadishu that protect the small enclave where the weak, U.N.-backed Somali government operates."
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10/4
9 killed as African Union advances on militants  (CNN)

"'"It was a scene of misery with blood and flesh everywhere.'"
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10/6
Uganda offers more peacekeeping troops for Somalia (AP)

The above linked article, by John Heilprin, made me realize how hard it is going to be to assist Africa.  Yes, Uganda is willing to send more troops to help stabilize Somalia.  But only if a third party (i.e. U.N.) foots the bill.  This is unlikely to happen, however.  U.N. budget cuts have already begun hampering operations in the Congo and Sudan.  Which, according to many sources, is very dangerous for the latter. Failure to properly prepare for the upcoming, controversial vote to remain united, could result in civil war returning to the region. 
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